From a personal point of view, the reason why this Supertrend indicator is so important is because it tells me which way I should be trading on the 4 hour chart. So I shall now only be taking long positions on the 4 hour chart when my favoured EMAs cross upwards (although I’ve only been taking long positions anyway in recent weeks because I was expecting this upward move).

The best high probability set-ups generally occur just after the Supertrend changes colour. So in this case we would ideally like to see the price fall to around the 1.52 – 1.53 level so that the EMAs cross downwards on the 4 hour chart and are perfectly positioned for an upward EMA crossover in the near future.

In simple terms, we want the EMA (5) to fall below the EMA (20) on the 4 hour chart first of all, then we can go long when the EMA (5) subsequently crosses upwards through the EMA (20).

Finally it’s worth keeping an eye on the EUR/USD pair as well because this one also looks like it’s about to turn bullish. The Supertrend indicator is still red on the daily chart but currently stands at 1.3684 which is very close to the current price. So a close above 1.3684 would signal a change in trend.

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Permalink• Print• Email• CommentRelated EntriesIs The EUR/USD Pair Finally About To Turn Bearish?Upside Still Prevails For GBP/USD, EUR/USD And USD/JPY PairsWeekly Trading Update – 19-23 April 2010Weekly Trading Update – 29 March – 02 April 2010Is The AUD/NZD About To Move Strongly Downwards?3 Comments on »April 15, 2010dickson

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The GBP/USD and EUR/USD didn’t produce any decent trading opportunities this week. Well actually if I had stuck to the trading rules of my 4 hour system I would have gone short on the EUR/USD pair after the EMAs crossed downwards, but I’m currently looking to go long on these two pairs.

So anyway the most profitable trade this week was on the GBP/JPY pair. The Supertrend is green on the daily chart, indicating a bullish trend, so I was looking for an upward EMA crossover on the 4 hour chart. This happened on Tuesday morning although I actually waited until the evening because that’s when we had a definitive crossover and it was also when the Smoothed Repulse indicator crossed through the crucial 0 level.

I went long very late in the evening at 143.44 and let it run overnight. The next morning I closed half the position straight away at 144.02 and let the other half run, before closing out at 144.50 later in the day.

The other decent trade was on the EUR/GBP pair. I was looking to go short on this one as the daily Supertrend has recently turned red, and went short early yesterday morning at 0.8793. I then closed half the position for 40 points and moved my stop loss to break-even. Unfortunately the price temporarily rose this morning and took out this stop loss, before heading downwards again.

The losing trades were on the USD/JPY pair, as I’ve already mentioned. I was looking to go long on this pair and traded two upward EMA crossovers. However they both failed to materialise into winning trades. Everything looked good – the Smoothed Repulse had crossed through 0 and the EMAs had crossed nicely upwards – but sometimes trades just don’t work out and in this case I took two 40 point losses.

So overall it wasn’t the most profitable week I’ve ever had, but I’m confident we will get some decent trading opportunities on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs in the next week or two.

(If you would like full details of my main 4 hour trading strategy, you can access it for free when you subscribe to my newsletter. Simply fill in the short form above).

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I actually traded this pair twice. The first time the EMAs crossed upwards was on Tuesday and I went long at 1.5380. Sadly this upward move fizzled out fairly quickly and I was stopped out for a 40 point loss.

I then went long again on Wednesday morning at 1.5375 when the EMA (5) moved upwards once more (it wasn’t a crossover as such, but it was good enough for me to re-enter a position). This one was more profitable. I closed half the position for 50 points and let the other half run. Sadly I was holding out for at least 1.5500 but it never got there and it ended up hitting my stop loss, which I had moved up to break-even.

So I was actually down on these two trades overall, but there were two other trades which helped push me into profit for the week. They both took place on Tuesday morning.

I went long on the USD/JPY at 92.80 after the EMAs crossed upwards on the 4 hour chart. I then closed half the position for 40 points and let the other half run, moving my stop loss to break-even. Unfortunately this stop loss was also triggered, but my EUR/GBP trade was much more profitable.

I went short on this one at 0.8780 after the EMAs crossed downwards on the 4 hour chart and ended up taking 40 points with the first half of the position and 80 points on the second after the price touched 0.8700. This turned out to be premature but to be honest I’m just relieved to be in profit for the week, even if it is a fairly modest one.

It was the GBP/USD trades that disappointed me the most because these were real high probability trades, but it wasn’t to be. Hopefully the really big move upwards will come next week sometime. I’m also hopeful that the EUR/USD will follow suit in the near future as well.

(If you would like full details of my main 4 hour trading strategy, you can access it for free when you subscribe to my newsletter. Simply fill in the short form above).

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Permalink• Print• Email• CommentRelated EntriesLatest EUR/USD Trade 31 March – A Classic Example Of A High Probability Set-UpWeekly Trading Update – December 8-12Weekly Trading Update – 12-16 April 2010Weekly Trading Update – 29 March – 02 April 2010Double Bottom

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It was clear that after a big sell-off there was a nice double-bottom forming on this pair. This was enough to get my attention, but I also noticed that after the price fell and formed a second bottom, there was a clear divergence pattern on both the MACD and Smoothed Repulse indicators, as you can see below. In other words the price was heading lower, but both the indicators were failing to make new lows. On top of that the price was getting close to the current Supertrend level but was struggling to break through it.

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I went long on the GBP/USD pair yesterday afternoon at 1.5020. I then closed half of the position for 50 points and let the other half run. I’m still holding this position and I’m hoping it’s going to reach 1.52 and have set my limit price accordingly. If it doesn’t and falls back downwards again, I have placed my stop loss at 1.51 which will still give me a profit of 80 points, but I’m fairly confident that we will hit 1.52 before that (UPDATE: it did indeed hit 1.52 this afternoon).

Regarding the EUR/USD pair, I went long on this one on Wednesday evening at 1.3633. This one didn’t go to plan initially but after setting my overnight stop loss (which thankfully wasn’t triggered), it headed higher on Thursday and I managed to close half the position for 50 points. I let the other half run and ended up closing out at 1.3750 earlier today for a very nice profit.

There was one other trade to tell you about, and this one also worked out well. It was on the EUR/GBP pair at the start of the week. The daily Supertrend has recently turned green on this pair so I was only looking for upward EMA crossovers on the 4 hour chart. Thankfully a crossover occurred on Monday afternoon and I managed to go long after a slight pull-back at 0.9050. I then closed half the position the next day for 40 points but was just stopped out at break-even with the second half of the position after a brief retracement.

Not to worry though because it’s still been a very profitable week overall. I just hope it continues because the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs in particular are quite difficult to trade at the moment because they’ve fallen so heavily in recent months. I really want to see 1.5453 and 1.3945 (the current Supertrend levels for these two pairs) taken out as this would signal the start of a new upward trend, and would make trading a lot easier.

(If you would like full details of my main 4 hour trading strategy, you can access it for free when you subscribe to my newsletter. Simply fill in the short form above).

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Permalink• Print• Email• CommentRelated EntriesWeekly Trading Update – February 23-27Weekly Trading Update – May 18-22 2009Weekly Trading Update – 30 November – 04 December 2009Weekly Trading Update – 05-09 April 2010Weekly Trading Update – 24-28 August 20096 Comments on »March 12, 2010Luke

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Therefore I’ve been looking to go long when the EMAs cross upwards on the 4 hour chart, and as it turned out the EMAs crossed upwards on both these pairs on Tuesday. I went long on the GBP/USD pair and EUR/USD pairs at 1.5142 and 1.3723 respectively.

Regarding the GBP/USD trade I then closed half the position for 50 points and let the other half run, moving my stop loss up to break-even. I then closed the second half of the position as soon as it hit 1.53 the following day.

The EUR/USD trade wasn’t quite as profitable. I did close half the position for 50 points but I was looking for at least 1.3850 with the second half of the position and it never made it. In fact the price fell back and I was closed out at break-even in the early hours of Thursday morning.

Overall though it was a reasonably profitable week using my main 4 hour trading system (fill in the form to the right if you want to check out this system for yourself).

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Permalink• Print• Email• CommentRelated EntriesWeekly Trading Update – May 04-08 2009Weekly Trading Update – September 8-12Weekly Trading Update – March 23-27Weekly Trading Update – June 16-20Weekly Trading Update – 06-10 July 20092 Comments on »March 24, 2010smi

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The Supertrend indicator is one of the best indicators you can use to spot new forex trends in my opinion. It is very easy to use because a green line indicates a bullish trend and a red line indicates a bearish trend, so all you need to do is wait for it to change colour. It’s not so effective on the shorter time frames, but on the longer time frames it works a treat, which is why it’s one of the main components of my 4 hour trading system.

2. Smoothed Repulse

This is another indicator that I like to use on the 4 hour charts. When the EMAs cross upwards at the same time as the Smoothed Repulse indicator moves above 0, you know you’ve found a high probability set-up (and vice versa for a short position).

3. TEMA (Triple Exponential Moving Average)

This is an indicator that I use a lot on the short-term charts. Basically a rising TEMA indicates a bullish trend and a falling TEMA obviously indicates a bearish trend. So if you use different colours such as blue and red, like I do, you can quickly and easily spot new trends.

4. Parabolic SAR

The Parabolic SAR indicator is displayed through a series of dots which closely track the price action. These dots are below the price when the price is rising and above the price when it’s falling. As soon as the current trend is over the price will hit one of these dots and trigger a new trend in the opposite direction.

5. Heikin Ashi

Strictly speaking Heikin Ashi isn’t really a technical indicator, it’s just an alternative way to display the price data. However it’s very useful because if the price is falling this will be displayed by a series of red candles and if it’s rising you will see a series of green candles. So quite simply, a change in trend will be indicated by the Heikin Ashi candles changing colour.

6. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are best used for spotting breakouts in my opinion, but you can also use them to spot new trends. Basically you want to keep an eye on the middle line, ie the line in the middle of the two outer bands, because if the price heads above this line you have a new upward trend, and vice versa if the price falls below this line.

7. MACD

The MACD indicator is one of the most common indicators and it’s another good way to spot changes in trend. You can either trade divergence patterns or trade the MACD crossovers. Alternatively you can simply wait for the MACD to cross above 0 (to indicate a bullish trend) or below 0 (to indicate a bearish trend) – you can make some huge profits trading long-term markets using this simple method.

8. TRIX

The TRIX indicator can be used to spot new trends in much the same way as the MACD indicator. You can trade short-term trends when you get a crossover on this indicator, but long-term trends are based on whether this indicator is above or below 0, so it’s worth watching to see when this key level is breached because it may signal the start of a new trend.

9. RSI

The RSI is often used to show when the market is overbought or oversold but you can use it to spot new trends as well. The key is to draw a line at the 50 level because a move above 50 often confirms a new upward trend, and conversely a fall below 50 often confirms a new downward trend.

10. Stochastics

This indicator can be used to spot new trends in much the same way as the RSI. Look for the price to move above or below the 50 level.

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Permalink• Print• Email• CommentRelated EntriesTrading Forex Breakouts Using Exponential Moving AveragesThe Smoothed Repulse IndicatorThe Average True Range (ATR) Technical IndicatorHere’s 3 Strategies You Can Use To Trade Forex Breakouts…The CCI (Commodity Channel Index) Technical Indicator10 Comments on »March 23, 2010Brian Campbell

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I shall continue to monitor these major pairs in the coming weeks but for now I’m being fairly cautious. Most of my time is currently spent trading shares and I’ve also been spending a lot of time working on a new day trading strategy as well, both of which are going pretty well at the moment.

The day trading strategy is very promising because it seems to work on currencies, commodities and some of the big US shares so I can trade various instruments throughout the day.

Anyway that’s all I have to say really. Have a great weekend and I’ll speak to you again next week.

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Permalink• Print• Email• CommentRelated EntriesWhat Are The Most Traded Forex Currencies?Marketclub ReviewBest Currencies To Trade When Trading Forex?Are The Minor Forex Currency Pairs Worth Trading?ADVFN Review1 Comment on »March 26, 2010ForexExchanger

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First of all let me show you the 4 hour chart of the EUR/USD pair:

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As regular readers will know, I’ve been looking to go long on both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs because although the Supertrend indicator is still red on the daily chart, and therefore indicating a downward trend, I just feel that they are both massively oversold.

So I was looking for upward EMA crossovers on the 4 hour chart of these two pairs, and this first occurred on the GBP/USD pair on Monday morning. There was a big crossover candle followed by a nice pull-back which allowed me to enter a position at 1.4983.

The price then drifted sideways for most of the day and I was worried that this was going to turn out to be a false breakout, but thankfully the upward trend continued the following day. When I switched on the computer the next morning I was delighted to find that I was around 70 points in profit so I immediately closed half the position for this amount (I normally close half the position for 50 points when I’m at my computer) and moved my stop loss up to break-even.

I then let the other half run and eventually closed out at 1.5183 on Wednesday afternoon to bank a profit of 200 points with the second half of the position. As it turned out there was another 100

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